British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) bears remain in control
The Pound-to-Dollar rate fell to fresh lows of 1.2777 on Friday after solid growth data lifted the greenback while Sterling remained on its back foot due to unfavourable Brexit news-flow.
There is an old Wall Street saying that the “trend is your friend until the bend at the end,” and so far we do not see a bend at the end of October’s short-term downtrend.
The big event for the Dollar in the week ahead is the nonfarm payrolls report due out on Friday at 13:30 London time.
October’s payrolls are expected to show the U.S. economy creating 191k new jobs, up from 134k in the previous month.
The relatively weak September figure was put down to the effect of Hurricane Florence preventing people from turning up to work and given this, payrolls are expected to rebound.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.30.
The projected upper bound is: 1.30.
The projected lower bound is: 1.26.
The projected closing price is: 1.28.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 14.8148. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.01. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 50 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -117.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX GBP= closed up 0.000 at 1.283. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 33% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.283 1.283 1.282 1.283 4,794
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.30 1.30 1.35
Volatility: 9 10 9
Volume: 176,364 176,019 172,799
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX GBP= is currently 4.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.