The pound started to fall against other currencies in the autumn of 2015 as financial markets started to factor in the possibility of the UK voting to leave the EU. By the time it reached its low point shortly after Theresa May raised the prospect at the Conservative party conference of Britain leaving without a deal, sterling had fallen by 22% against a basket of currencies. It has since risen by around 4% and is currently trading at just under $1.30 against the US dollar.
The sharp fall in sterling triggered by the EU referendum result is having an adverse effect on Britain’s already weak public finances but has yet to bring about the expected improvement in the trade deficit, a Guardian analysis of the economic news of the past month shows.
With the economy showing signs of losing momentum and inflation showing a surprise fall to 2.6%, the latest data suggest that August could well see the Bank of England revise down its forecasts for the economy and put to bed the prospect of a rate hike any time soon, albeit with the door left open for a tightening of policy if the economic data surprise to the upside as we move through the second half of the year.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Short term: Prices are stalling.
Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.28.
The projected upper bound is: 1.32.
The projected lower bound is: 1.29.
The projected closing price is: 1.30.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 36.2396. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.15. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 60 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 64. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX GBP= closed up 0.005 at 1.304. Volume was 67% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 29% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume
1.298 1.305 1.298 1.304 41,516
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.30 1.29 1.26
Volatility: 9 9 11
Volume: 109,671 125,353 138,285
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX GBP= is currently 3.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods.
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