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British Pound Outlook
The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate fell 0.78% on Tuesday to close the day at 1.2875 courtesy of the Dollar’s surge in the wake of the news. The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate meanwhile fell 0.40% to close the day at 1.1733.
But the GBP/USD and EUR/USD pairs are at 1.2918 and 1.1760 respectively on Wednesday, suggesting there has been no significant follow through overnight as Trump made clear in subsequent tweets that he was still open to some element of stimulus support.
“If I am sent a Stand Alone Bill for Stimulus Checks ($1,200), they will go out to our great people IMMEDIATELY. I am ready to sign right now. Are you listening Nancy?” said Trump.
This appears to have pared some of the sharp market moves that followed the announcement that talks were off.
A full break of EUR/USD back above 1.18 and of GBP/USD above 1.30, respectively, is still not an easy task, although this remains our central scenario.
GBP/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
GBP/US Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.29.
The projected upper bound is: 1.31.
The projected lower bound is: 1.27.
The projected closing price is: 1.29.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 47.6021. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.29. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 36 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 76. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX GBP= closed up 0.001 at 1.293. Volume was 76% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 44% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.292 1.293 1.290 1.293 31,855
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bearish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.29 1.30 1.27 Volatility: 7 11 14 Volume: 142,063 127,331 126,048
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX GBP= is currently 1.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.
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