$GBP #BritishPound #USD #FX #Currencies #Trading #Markets
British Pound Outlook
British pound traders were all over the place during the trading session on Friday as the jobs number came out and word got out that Donald Trump has contracted the coronavirus. That being said, the risk was all over the place during the day and it showed up in this chart. Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that the Brexit nonsense is still out there waiting to happen, meaning that we will get the occasional noisy headlines. Because of this, the British pound is going to continue being very difficult to trade.
Looking at the chart, it is apparent that the 1.30 level has offered significant resistance, and at this point, it probably will continue to do so. The candlesticks over the last couple of days have been somewhat supportive, but we are still essentially in a down-trending channel, which suggests that we still have a lot of trouble just above.
Looking at the 50 day EMA, it is slicing through the candlestick, so that is something to pay attention to as well. I believe at this point we will continue to see a lot of noisy trading, and therefore I like the idea of selling on short-term charts, but as far as buying is concerned I would like to see a daily close above the 1.3050 level as it would clear quite a bit of noise. At that point, somebody would have to have said something about Brexit, which can throw the spear around quite rapidly. In fact, we have seen that earlier this week, only to have cold water thrown on it as rumors continue to rule the day. Nonetheless, until we are above that previously mentioned level of 1.3050, I look at any rally with a bit of a grain of salt.
To the downside I believe that the 1.2750 level will continue to offer support, just as the 200 day EMA sitting right there will as well. Breaking down below there opens up another 50 pips to the downside, and ultimately a move down to the 1.25 handle. I expect to see a lot of choppiness between now and whatever resolution we get to this area, so keep that in mind when putting your positions on what we are more than likely going to continue to see.
GBP/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
GBP/US Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.29.
The projected upper bound is: 1.32.
The projected lower bound is: 1.28.
The projected closing price is: 1.30.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 89.8693. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.53. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 34 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 116.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX GBP= closed up 0.001 at 1.299. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 38% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.298 1.299 1.297 1.299 2,405
Technical Outlook Short Term: Overbought Intermediate Term: Bearish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.29 1.30 1.27 Volatility: 5 11 14 Volume: 141,970 125,885 124,842
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX GBP= is currently 2.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods.
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