British Pound News
Sterling rose by about 0.75% last week, its third weekly advance in a row. It met selling pressure a little over $1.33 like it did earlier the month. Another trade talk deadline is seen early next week, and we suspect there would be a larger market reaction if there was no deal than if there were.
Many talk about the potential for as much as a 5% swing in either direction, which seems exaggerated.
The momentum indicators are at a mature part of their cycles, and sterling is up around 2.5% so far this month.
The one-week implied volatility finished the week near 10.25%, its lowest weekly close in four weeks.
Sterling has also gained around 1% against the euro over the past two weeks. Our thought is to fade dramatic moves.
GBP/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
GBP/US Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.30.
The projected upper bound is: 1.35.
The projected lower bound is: 1.31.
The projected closing price is: 1.33.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 81.8912. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 63.98. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 68 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 115.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX GBP= closed up 0.003 at 1.332. Volume was 76% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 1% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.327 1.333 1.327 1.332 32,885
Technical Outlook Short Term: Overbought Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.32 1.30 1.27 Volatility: 8 10 14 Volume: 145,959 150,813 133,727
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX GBP= is currently 4.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 28 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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