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British Pound Outlook
While far from certain it is a widely held sentiment that there will be at least a working Brexit deal reached prior to the next deadline. Any outcome more positive than simply an agreement to continue negotiations should result in increased strengthening of the pound.
It is also yet to be seen if rising infection rates in the UK will require stricter lockdown conditions affecting the economy, although positive progress in US stimulus negotiations and the upcoming election should serve to increase traders’ appetite for risk, weakening the USD and strengthening the pound.
News from the Bank of England that they are preparing for negative interest rates if required should also strengthen the pound even as the infection rate increases.
The US dollar is currently regarded as overvalued in terms of US monetary policy – and indications of stability, regardless of the election outcome, should accelerate a shift away from the USD for global traders.
GBP/USD: buy or sell
As 2020 has proven multiple times there is always a possibility of unforeseen scenarios which can quickly alter the landscape. But with the information that is currently available and likely outcomes of major factors shaping the GBP/USD prediction, the pair is considered a buy towards the end of 2020.
In the short-term, any (minor) negative news surrounding Brexit negotiations or increasing uncertainty leading up to the US election could trigger a short lived sell signal. However, the pound is expected to strengthen as we head towards the New Year.
According to Trading Economics’ GBP/USD forecast for the rest of 2020, the British pound is expected to trade at 1.28 by the end of the year. Going forward, analysts predict that the pair will trade at 1.26 in 12 months’ time, which is 2.3 per cent lower than the latest price of 1.29.
GBP/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
GBP/US Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 1.31.
The projected lower bound is: 1.27.
The projected closing price is: 1.29.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 34.3890. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.52. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 42 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -60. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX GBP= closed down -0.003 at 1.289. Volume was 82% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 28% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.291 1.292 1.288 1.289 23,773
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.30 1.30 1.27 Volatility: 11 11 14 Volume: 133,073 130,463 127,168
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX GBP= is currently 1.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.
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