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Wednesday, September 22, 2021

British Pound: GBP/USD (GBP=X) Focus on Post-Brexit Trade Negotiations

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British Pound
Ticker: GBP=
Price: $1.3310

British Pound News

A positive shift in tone on post-Brexit trade negotiations between the EU and UK on Sunday sent the British Pound higher at the start of the new week as foreign exchange markets opened in Asia.

The Pound went a percent higher against the Dollar, three-quarters of a percent higher against the Euro and advanced against all other major currencies after the EU and UK signalled intent to reach an agreement.

Last week the two sides agreed that unless notable progress had been made by Sunday they might end talks.

“Despite the exhaustion after almost a year of negotiations, despite the fact that deadlines have been missed over and over we think it is responsible at this point to go the extra mile,” said EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in a statement released on behalf of her and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Sunday 11:45 GMT.

The statement came following a phone call between von der Leyen and Johnson to assess the progress made between their two teams, which von der Leyen decribed as being constructive and useful.

Notably, the two sides have not suggested any new deadline which further underpins a perceived desire to see a deal done.

As long as the two sides are engaged in discussions then the prospect of a deal is likely and it is possible that talks go to December 31 when the transition period runs out, although the prospect of it coming at some point this coming week is more likely.

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Numerous media reports are suggesting some progress has been made between negotiators overnight, leading to the agreement to keep talking.

A worst-case scenario outcome from the perspective of the Pound Sterling exchange rates was that the two sides decided to call an end to talks on Sunday, leading to a messy start to the new week.

The best-case scenario was alwats that the two sides agree to continue discussion, which has been borne out.

The Pound-to-Euro exchange rate started the new week at 1.0921 and rose to 1.0995 at the open, the Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate will start the new week at 1.3226 and rose to 1.3350.

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Should a deal be secured over coming days the Pound would likely run notably higher given the currency suffered some notable declines over recent days which must be pared.

GBP has opened some 1% higher in early Asia trade after the UK and EU agreed on Sunday “to continue the talks and to see whether an agreement can even at this late stage be reached. We expect GBP/USD to fall towards 1.2800 in the short term if there is no post‑Brexit trade agreement as UK interest rate expectations adjust sharply lower. If there is a deal, GBP/USD can recover to 1.3600.

GBP/US Dollar Exchange Rate

Today’s Forex Rates

GBP/US Dollar FX Polls

Economic Events

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.31.

The projected upper bound is: 1.35.

The projected lower bound is: 1.31.

The projected closing price is: 1.33.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 33.4661. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 52.18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 83 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX GBP= closed up 0.009 at 1.331. Volume was 92% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 46% narrower than normal.

Open   High   Low   Close   Volume
1.328  1.337  1.327 1.331   11,578
Technical Outlook
Short Term:        Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term:         Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period   50-period   200-period
Close:           1.34        1.32        1.28
Volatility:      10          10          14
Volume:          127,641     146,841     135,279

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX GBP= is currently 4.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.

Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 43 periods.

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