$DIS, $SNE, $LGF, $TWX, $CMCSA, $FOX

FlASH: Combined US ticket sales were down sharply, worst Presidents Day weekend in at least 14 years.

Wall Street, and industry observers struggle with a downturn at the North American box office following a record-shattering Y 2018. Revenue for the 1st 7 weeks of y 2019 hit an 8 year low, capped by what looks to be the worst Presidents Day weekend in 14 years.

January was down more than 15% from the prior year sans a breakout hit or a carryover holiday hit such as Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman last year, or a Star Wars pic the three previous years. Revenue for January 2019 came in at roughly $812-M, the lowest since Y2011.

“This lack has the industry stuck in Neutral as we await the arrival of Captain Marvel, which will begin a much-needed and inevitable revival at the multiplex,” says Comscore.

So far, February has not brought much relief. Revenue for the month is also at its lowest level since T 2011, according to Comscore’s data.

This year, the top-grossing pic of the long Presidents Day weekend is the James Cameron-written-and-produced Alita: Battle Angel with an estimated 5-day opening of $41 to 42-M, a final number will be released Tuesday morning.

While Alita came in well ahead of prerelease tracking, its domestic launch is subdued given its $170-M net budget.

Among other holiday offerings, the Rebel Wilson comedy Isn’t It Romantic opened to an estimated $23.6-M, followed by Happy Death Day 2U with a muted $15-M.

Happy Death Day 2U, from Blumhouse and Universal, is among several Y 2019 sequels that are doing notably less business than their predecessors. The first Happy Death Day, for example, debuted to $26-M in Y 2017.

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Chapter started off with $34-M over the 8-10 February weekend, less than 50% the 1st film’s debut. Lego 2‘s estimated domestic total through Monday is $66-M, compared with $130-M for 2014’s The Lego Movie by the end of its 2nd frame.

The Top-grossing release of Y 2019 to date is M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass, which has earned an estimated $105% to date.

Through Sunday, domestic box office revenue YTD stood at $1.2-B, down nearly 20% off the same frame in Y 2018.

Next week’s 3-quel How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World hopes to beat the sequel curse that has infected the Y 2019 box office so far, but most box office observers are more focused on Captain Marvel, the female-fronted Superhero pic that opens on 8 March.

Captain Marvel is the 1st in a string of 2019 Disney tentpoles followed by Dumbo, Avengers: Endgame, The Lion King, Toy Story 4, Frozen 2 and Star Wars: Episode IX.

Analysts remain confident that Disney’s slate, combined with event films from rival studios, including The Secret Life of Pets 2, Spider-Man: Far From Home, Hobbs & Shaw, It: Chapter 2, Joker and an untitled Jumanji sequel, will deliver a record year in Y 2019, despite Hollywood’s ‘Winter of Discontent”. There could also be an unprecedented number of titles soaring past $1-B at the global box office.

We will see, meantime…

Have some fun, see a movie this week.

  box, CMCSA, day, DIS, Disney, domestic, events, films, FOX, global, LGF, movie, office, Presidents, SNE, tentpoles, TWX

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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