Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Volatility Plunges, Likely to Increase Significantly in Near Future

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Volatility Plunges, Likely to Increase Significantly in Near Future

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Volatility Plunges, Likely to Increase Significantly in Near Future

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading up marginally at its current price of $3,460. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has been trading choppily between approximately $3,400 and $3,500 and has been narrowing this range over the past couple of days.

This isn’t the first time Bitcoin has seen an extended period of sideways trading. Last-September Bitcoin saw a similar trading situation within the $6,000 region, trading choppily in a slightly larger trading range between $6,300 and $6,700.

While looking at the Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index, Hsaka, a popular cryptocurrency trader on Twitter, noted that the cryptocurrency’s volatility has dropped to a new demand zone, which is typically proceeded by a large price move.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 3,907.18.

The projected upper bound is: 3,724.92.

The projected lower bound is: 3,003.46.

The projected closing price is: 3,364.19.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 19.2042. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 21 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.20. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 51 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -90. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -54.890 at 3,367.510. Volume was 73% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 73% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
3,418.0003,522.4003,348.5003,367.510 22,111

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 3,416.29 3,682.62 5,459.86
Volatility: 25 61 65
Volume: 63,181 75,412 79,538

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 38.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 22 periods.

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