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Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) very thinly traded so algorithms will come in and start throwing things around if we see hints of momentum


Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) very thinly traded so algorithms will come in and start throwing things around if we see hints of momentum

The coin markets rolled over during the trading session on Good Friday as there would have been a serious lack of volume. That being said, the market then broke down below the $7000 level, showing a bit of weakness as we failed at the 50 day EMA. If that is a sign of things to come, Bitcoin will more than likely go looking towards the bottom of the previous consolidation, which sends it down to $6500.

After that, the $6000 level is the next target, and then breaking down below that could really start to send this market much lower. I will say this though, Bitcoin has not acted well over the last couple of days. It failed at the 50 day EMA, forming a shooting star. Granted, it would sideways for a couple of days after that but the candlestick during the Friday session certainly shows that there is still a lack of belief in this market. I think at this point the fact that the greenback has given back so much strength against so many other currencies and Bitcoin can’t rally against it probably speaks volumes.

That also sets up an interesting scenario that the market could turn around a break back above the red 50 day EMA. If it does, then the market will break above the $7500 level it more than likely go looking towards the $8000 level where we had seen a significant amount of selling previously, and the 200 day EMA sits at. I think that Bitcoin is going to continue to be choppy to say the least, and that it’s very likely that we will eventually see sellers come in and push to the downside. However, I do keep both sides of the equation laid out, knowing that are wrong you need to have an area where you admit it. For me, it’s the 50 day EMA.

At this point, Bitcoin has underperformed considering how other risk appetite based market tab. I think this shows a real weakness in this sector still, and as a result unless you are a long term holder, the best thing you can do is fade rallies or breakdowns below the support levels underneath. If we do break down below the $6000 level, I expect this market to start falling rather rapidly as the momentum will build upon itself. Remember, Bitcoin is very thinly traded so algorithms will come in and start throwing things around if we see hints of momentum.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 8,029.84.

The projected lower bound is: 5,294.41.

The projected closing price is: 6,662.13.


A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 18 white candles and 32 black candles for a net of 14 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 26.4269. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 31 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 25 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -24. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 23 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -395.540 at 6,725.210. Volume was 49% below average (consolidating)(neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 43% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
7,119.8307,184.4506,542.9106,725.210 206,121
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 7,011.48 7,176.51 8,049.98
Volatility: 73 134 82
Volume: 542,328 578,262 230,335

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 16.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into BTC= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.

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S. Jack Heffernan Ph.D. Economist at Knightsbridge holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Crypto, Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.