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Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) traders say bearish signals are appearing after the cryptocurrency’s 30 percent rebound

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) traders say bearish signals are appearing after the cryptocurrency’s 30 percent rebound

Bitcoin slid Monday to its lowest point in the past seven days, with traders saying bearish signals are appearing after the cryptocurrency’s 30 percent rebound from a market bottom in mid-March.

After recovering from the depths of the coronavirus-induced sell-off, bitcoin repeatedly failed to break above a price of $7,400. 

Bitcoin (BTC) prices fell Monday by 1.6 percent to 20:45 UTC (4:45 p.m. EDT) while ether fell 1.8 percent.

Most major digital assets were down on the day. Bitcoin cash (BCH) was down 4.8 percent, EOS (EOS) dipped 2.6 percent and bitcoin sv (BSV) lost 1.9 percent. All price changes are from 0:00 UTC. 

Bitcoin futures contracts for June on exchanges such as Kraken are trading around $6,750, which suggests traders are pricing in further downside. Such “backwardation” — where futures trade at a discount to the spot price — represents a shift from last week, when futures were trading at a premium. 

“Futures and our own activity indicate that speculators expect to see lower prices in the short term,” said Maxine Boonen, CEO of over-the-counter (OTC) bitcoin liquidity provider B2C2. “One particular hedge fund sold us $20 million of bitcoin today and they have usually been right.” 

Early losses on Monday triggered $29 million in position liquidations for futures traders on the BitMEX exchange, exacerbating the sell-off. Hourly liquidations on BitMEX had averaged just $200,000 over the past few days. 

In traditional markets, the S&P 500 of large U.S. stocks fell 1 percent as the death toll from the coronavirus continued to cast a pall. New York state, now the epicenter of the pandemic, surpassed 10,000 deaths, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Monday.

Constantine Kogan, a partner at crypto fund BitBull Capital, said the “macroeconomic trend isn’t positive so it will continue to put pressure on crypto,” Kogan said.

Elsewhere, gold, a classic haven asset and hedge against inflation, is currently trading up at 1.2 percent.

Although some cryptocurrency analysts and investors think bitcoin could prove to be a hedge against inflation, the yellow metal is outperforming it. 

“A break below $6,500 will likely lead to another round of liquidations and send the price towards the $6,100 to $6,200 area,” said Denis Vinokourov, head of research at crypto investment brokerage Bequant, said of bitcoin.

“For the bulls, a break below will be particularly painful,” he said. “There really isn’t much support until the $5,000 zone. This cautious tone is supported by a shift in the futures curve.” 

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 8,214.51.

The projected lower bound is: 5,490.81.

The projected closing price is: 6,852.66.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 31 black candles for a net of 12 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 43.5793. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 32 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.12. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 26 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 24 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 80.820 at 6,906.440. Volume was 64% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 43% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
6,825.2506,948.5706,775.0006,906.440 146,763
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 7,028.45 7,124.73 8,044.73
Volatility: 69 134 82
Volume: 446,180 578,420 231,614

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 14.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into BTC= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.

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