Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) to Fall Due to Triangle?
Over the past few weeks, traders have come to the realization that Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in a clear “descending triangle” pattern. For those unaware, a descending triangle is a bearish chart pattern that is marked by lower highs and multiple bottoms at the same level, coupled with ever-decreasing volumes into the apex of the triangle.
Traders have come to see these triangles as bearish, as they often result in the asset in question falling through the bottom after a certain number of bounces to establish a new trading range.
Indeed, Bitcoin was actually in a descending triangle during mid-2018, which led to the collapse from $6,000 to $3,000, and was in an ascending triangle (the exact opposite of the aforementioned pattern) during the bottoming process in December 2018 and Q1 2019.
Technical Indicators
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 10,946.57.
The projected lower bound is: 9,078.18.
The projected closing price is: 10,012.37.
Candlesticks
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum Indicators
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
Stochastic Oscillator
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 16.9775. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.20. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 76 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -8. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
MACD
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed down -37.550 at 10,014.950. Volume was 71% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 50% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
10,076.00010,297.0009,987.20010,014.950 25,958
Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 10,379.93 10,391.77 7,868.91
Volatility: 54 57 79
Volume: 76,064 83,626 82,411
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
Summary
FOREX BTC= is currently 27.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods.
