Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) The halving is coming this year
Bitcoin is expected to undergo a halving event in May 2020, decreasing the coin’s mining reward from 12.5 BTC to 6.25. This essentially means less BTC will enter the market on a consistent basis.
As this event occurs every four years, Bitcoin has completed two other halving events since its 2009 inception. The event has historically led to higher prices for crypto’s pioneer asset, leading many market participants to have a bullish bias for the event this year.
After looking at data from 22 different crypto media outlets, such as Cointelegraph, CoinDesk, Bitcoinist, and The Block, The TIE found a “moderately strong and positive” correlation between mentions of Bitcoin’s halving and the asset’s price, Frank said.
“What is interesting here is not that the two variables are perfectly correlated, but that price has generally trailed the halving narrative,” Frank said. “As digital asset publications have discussed it more, price has followed. That isn’t to say that correlation equals causation though,” he added.
Digital gold was the narrative that drove price last year
Bitcoin’s value as digital gold was a key driver of price last year, and that seems to be shifting to a narrative in which Bitcoin’s upcoming halving pushes the asset’s price higher, Frank said.
Throughout Bitcoin’s history, many people and entities have compared the asset to gold in various ways.
“It wasn’t until last fall that we began seeing a rise in headlines on the halving and subsequent correlation with price,” Frank noted.
“Over the past few months there have been many instances in which one narrative seemingly takes a driver’s seat,” Frank said, pointing toward changes in narrative popularity. “In October 2019 the digital gold narrative was pushed much harder than the halving narrative,” he said.
“Keep in mind, this data is relative over that period,” he clarified, adding, “It isn’t a measure of raw mentions.”
Just last week, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao expressed his opinion that Bitcoin will rise further in price due to the halving.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 9,575.93.
The projected lower bound is: 8,093.73.
The projected closing price is: 8,834.83.
A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 26.7776. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -223.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed down -558.980 at 8,819.000. Volume was 118% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 2% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 9,600.10 9,198.20 8,779.33
Volatility: 61 51 56
Volume: 308,304 186,996 109,227
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 0.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.
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