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Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) the Alternative


Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) the Alternative

As for what could replace the US dollar, Paul speculates that Bitcoin could be “an alternative” to government-backed fiat currencies like the dollar. The dollar by design is inflationary, losing its value each time the Federal Reserve prints more money.

Whereas Bitcoin, which was designed in the wake of the 2008 economic crisis, is deflationary and due to each “halving” the supply of Bitcoin is diminished further. The sudden imbalance of supply and demand further drives up the price of the first ever digital asset.

Paul has even offered his supporters Bitcoin as an alternative to donating fiat in support of Paul and his son Rand’s political efforts. Rand Paul became the first ever presidential candidate to accept Bitcoin donations through his political foundation back in 2015.

Those Bitcoins that the Paul’s have had donated to them aren’t held, however. Paul says he owns no Bitcoin currently, and that all donations get immediately converted into fiat currencies in order to pay “bills.” But once bills can be paid in Bitcoin, maybe then the risk and global impact of impending collapse in the face the US dollar will finally be reduced.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 6,176.34.

The projected upper bound is: 8,748.50.

The projected lower bound is: 7,257.04.

The projected closing price is: 8,002.77.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 33 white candles and 17 black candles for a net of 16 white candles.

An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX BTC=). It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.

If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend, it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 78.8938. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 68.75. This is not a topping or bottoming area. However, the RSI just crossed below 70 from a topping formation. This is a bearish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 70. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 18 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -124.400 at 7,940.000. Volume was 58% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 222% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
8,090.2508,113.0007,844.0407,940.000 30,977

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 7,773.73 5,904.66 4,488.30
Volatility: 106 73 75
Volume: 102,144 80,798 77,440

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 76.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into BTC= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods.

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