Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) struggling to elevate itself above $11,600

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) struggling to elevate itself above $11,600

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) struggling to elevate itself above $11,600

Following months of wildly erratic volatility, which saw the world’s dominant cryptocurrency experience some of the most dramatic peaks and troughs in its ten-year history, it entered August with an apparent determination to flatline. 

While treating this as welcome respite from a spell of immense unpredictability, it would be easy to assume BTC wants a period of quiet reflection and to simply sit still for a while. After all, a similar pattern was formed in 2018 when bitcoin spent much of the second half of the year unwilling to stray north or south of $6,400.

However, a look at the market graphs may betray a crossroads where bitcoin will be forced to turn rather than remain on its current course. A simple triangulation of highs and lows shows BTC is fairly comfortable in a range between $10,000 and $11,000 where it could possibly remain for the rest of month.

For now, we can expect an undulating push-me-pull-me scenario as we bounce between the ever-narrowing lines of convergence. It’s still well within the range of potentially dipping below the $10k line, but also touching $11.8k as it is squeezed towards something like $10,700 or $10,900.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 10,386.02.

The projected upper bound is: 12,001.14.

The projected lower bound is: 8,423.06.

The projected closing price is: 10,212.10.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 10.9527. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.49. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 49 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -129.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 106.680 at 10,261.000. Volume was 92% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 11% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
10,155.71010,294.00010,130.05010,261.000 7,254
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 11,251.32 10,861.32 6,978.64
Volatility: 56 102 79
Volume: 79,892 92,031 80,743

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 47.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.

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