Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) struggled to break the $4,120 resistance

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) struggled to break the $4,120 resistance

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) struggled to break the $4,120 resistance

Yesterday, we saw a short term upside move above $3,600 and $3,800 in bitcoin price against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair traded above the $4,000 barrier as well, but it failed to hold gains. The price was rejected near the $4,100 barrier and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It seems like buyers struggled to gain strength above $4,000, resulting in a bearish reaction.

A high was formed at $4,126 and later the price declined below $4,000 and $3,900. The decline was such that the price even broke the $3,580 support and traded as low as $3,513. Later, it corrected above $3,600 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the $4,126 high to $3,513 low. On the upside, there are many hurdles for buyers near the $3,800 and $3,900 levels. Moreover, yesterday’s highlighted crucial bearish trend line is active with resistance at $3,900 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the $4,126 high to $3,513 low is also near $3,819.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 5,255.18.

The projected upper bound is: 4,485.44.

The projected lower bound is: 3,374.79.

The projected closing price is: 3,930.11.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 31.0451. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 24.23. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 111 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -70. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 214.700 at 3,982.010. Volume was 49% below average (consolidating)(neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 271% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
3,766.0004,068.7203,738.2003,982.010 36,210

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 4,116.94 5,842.72 6,651.58
Volatility: 119 69 60
Volume: 92,715 65,395 78,790

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 40.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of BTC= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 15 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that BTC= is currently in an oversold condition.

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