Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) streets ahead of macro assets in 2020
Bitcoin (BTC) has in total suffered just 10% from the coronavirus outbreak which obliterated stocks and caused the United States to print $6 trillion.
That was according to the latest quarterly price data from monitoring resource Skew.com on March 31, which showed that for Q1 2020, BTC/USD is only down by around 10.7%.
Bitcoin streets ahead of macro assets in 2020
At press time, the pair remained higher after seeking new support at $6,500 on Monday.
At those levels, the pair is just $700 lower than its position at the start of 2020, and $3,800 beneath its current year-to-date all-time high of around $10,300.
Bitcoin has advanced 75% in the two weeks since hitting its quarterly low — in a volatile period, that recovery at one point reached 90% as markets peaked at over $7,000 on some exchanges.
As such, Bitcoin now looks increasingly resilient as an investment option versus traditional markets, which are still trailing much more as a result of coronavirus.
Indicator flashes green as lucrative Q2 looms
Statistically, Q2 in a given year tends to be the most profitable for Bitcoin holders. Since 2013, just one Q2 has delivered negative returns, Skew reveals, with average gains totaling 65%.
Bitcoin quarterly returns since 2014. Source: Skew
Signs of potential are becoming visible on some indicators. As Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, the GTI Vera Convergence Divergence Indicator is giving the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index its first “buy” signal in three months.
The mood among analysts is also turning more optimistic. In his latest forecast on Monday, veteran trader Tone Vays said that he no longer expected BTC/USD to find new lows of less than $3,700.
Earlier in March, he had warned that Bitcoin could plunge to as low as $2,800. Even if this were still to happen, he added, it would not pose a threat as long it was before May’s block reward halving event.
Technical Indicators
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
The projected upper bound is: 7,794.56.
The projected lower bound is: 5,047.85.
The projected closing price is: 6,421.20.
Candlesticks
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 31 black candles for a net of 12 black candles.
A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.
Momentum Indicators
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
Stochastic Oscillator
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 42.5556. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 18 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.35. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 56. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
MACD
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed up 23.890 at 6,488.660. Volume was 201% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 11% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
6,477.8006,630.0006,361.3206,488.660 911,490
Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 6,436.78 7,958.91 8,234.15
Volatility: 94 132 82
Volume: 609,792 442,056 181,681
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
Summary
FOREX BTC= is currently 21.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into BTC= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 39 periods.
