Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Still in Correction Mode
Bitcoin is still consolidating after its recent test of the ascending channel resistance, keeping the correction going. Price seems to have bounced off the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level but might still be due for a larger dip.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, the climb is more likely to gain traction than to reverse. The 100 SMA is also currently holding as dynamic support and could continue to keep losses in check.
A larger pullback might find more buyers at the area of interest that lines up with the 61.8% Fib, channel bottom, and a former resistance around the $4,000 major psychological mark. If any of these support levels hold, bitcoin could resume the climb to the swing high at $4,170 or the channel top closer to $4,200.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 3,874.66.
The projected upper bound is: 4,413.14.
The projected lower bound is: 3,808.05.
The projected closing price is: 4,110.59.
A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 69.4444. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 19 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 58.84. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 24 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 125.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed up 104.620 at 4,096.700. Volume was 66% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 41% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 3,980.62 3,759.69 4,793.44
Volatility: 49 51 65
Volume: 56,214 65,508 74,215
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 14.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 37 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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