Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Sinks to Weekly Low at $3,400
After an extended period of sideways trading in the mid-to-upper $3,400 region, Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to break through its nearest resistance level at $3,500, which has led the cryptocurrency to drop to its support level at $3,400.
Although BTC has yet to break decisively below this level, one analyst believes that the lack of buying pressure at this price point signals that further losses are to come in the near-future, and that Bitcoin must see increased adoption in order for it to see steady price gains.
Bitcoin Sinks to Weekly Low at $3,400
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading down nearly 2% at its current price of $3,410. Earlier today, it briefly touched $3,400 before seeing a very slight bounce to its current price levels.
In late-January, Bitcoin fell to $3,400 before quickly bouncing to $3,500, which confirmed the existence of a new trading range between $3,400 and $3,500, and BTC has yet to break decisively above or below either of these price levels.
Today’s drop was not entirely unexpected, as multiple analysts had previously noted that its inability to break above $3,500 could signal a technical weakness. Despite this, if buyers are able to hold $3,400 as a level of support, Bitcoin may be able to retest its resistance level at $3,500.
In a recent tweet from The Crypto Dog, a popular cryptocurrency analyst, he noted that he will only go long on BTC if it is able to climb above $3,520, which could signal a temporary reversal of its current downtrend.
“No position on $BTC (aside from long term holdings I’m not planning on touching for years) but I’ll take a long in the lower grey zone or look for an entry if we get a break out past ~$3520,” he explained.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 3,896.13.
The projected upper bound is: 3,709.87.
The projected lower bound is: 2,997.54.
The projected closing price is: 3,353.71.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
An inverted hammer occurred. If this occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX BTC=) it implies a reversal. Look for a confirmation of the reversal on the bar.
A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
A shooting star occurred (a shooting star has a small real body near the bottom of the candle and a long upper shadow). During an uptrend the long upper shadow indicates that the bears are gaining control and a top may occur.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 17.7249. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 22 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 35.74. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 52 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -108.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed down -6.760 at 3,359.790. Volume was 77% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 73% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 3,410.57 3,676.52 5,439.06
Volatility: 13 60 65
Volume: 60,821 74,545 79,325
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 38.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 23 periods.
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