Home Crypto Bitcoin Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) signs of overbought conditions and waning bullish momentum

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) signs of overbought conditions and waning bullish momentum


Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) signs of overbought conditions and waning bullish momentum

Bitcoin (BTC) is a decentralized digital currency created by Satoshi Nakamoto and released in 2009. The spot price has increased 177% from the low set in December 2018, but remains down 56% from the current all time high set in December 2017. The BTC market cap currently stands at US$154.37 billion, with US$5.5 billion traded in the past 24 hours.

The rolling 90-day Pearson correlation between BTC and the top 10 cryptocurrencies continues to support bull market conditions. Generally, BTC and the rest of the high market cap coins are highly correlated during a bear market and less correlated during a bull market. Since April, correlations for major coins and BTC has fallen significantly.

Since the beginning of the year, Monero (XMR) and Ethereum (ETH) have had the longest period of positive high correlation whereas Binance Coin (BNB) and Tron (TRX) have had the longest period of positive low correlation. BNB is currently the least correlated coin to BTC by a significant margin.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

The projected upper bound is: 8,721.79.

The projected lower bound is: 6,984.03.

The projected closing price is: 7,852.91.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 33 white candles and 17 black candles for a net of 16 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 28.4411. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -119.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 150.600 at 7,800.600. Volume was 60% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 26% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
7,648.0007,869.3007,424.6507,800.600 31,454

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 8,423.14 6,795.02 4,639.90
Volatility: 88 75 76
Volume: 86,649 82,097 79,389

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 68.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 33 periods.

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