Home Crypto Bitcoin Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) short term outlook remains a volatile one

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) short term outlook remains a volatile one

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Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) short term outlook remains a volatile one

The cryptocurrency markets were flashing red again on Thursday after bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, fell by more than $900 in 24 hours.

On August 14, beginning at 12:00 UTC, BTC began to fall sharply from $10,862 to as low as $9,888 before traders bought the price back up above $10,000.

It marks the worst single-day loss since July 16, approximately 30 days ago.

However, BTC’s price has successfully defended a sub $10,000 close on yesterday’s trading period and is currently changing hands at $10,084.

The move down was also accompanied by a large surge in total trading volume, rising $13.5 billion over a 24-hour period as investors and traders rushed to close their positions in order to stem the bleeding.

Major names such as ether (ETH), litecoin (LTC), XRP (XRP) and EOS (EOS) also began to fall in value at around the same time as BTC, losing between 8-12 percent respectively.

Further, the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined endured a $20 billion loss over 24 hours with a total valuation of $265.8 billion by the time the dust had settled.

The short term outlook remains a volatile one, so BTC could experience a bounce on today’s momentum, but that will need to be accompanied by strong levels in growing (bullish) volume in order to end the recent sell-off still being felt from August 10.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 10,372.09.

The projected upper bound is: 11,723.03.

The projected lower bound is: 8,146.17.

The projected closing price is: 9,934.60.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 8.2441. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 40.54. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 49 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -148.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -165.380 at 9,988.940. Volume was 76% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 12% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
10,155.71010,294.0009,852.9709,988.940 21,946
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 11,224.11 10,855.88 6,977.28
Volatility: 54 102 79
Volume: 81,361 92,325 80,816

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 43.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.

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S. Jack Heffernan Ph.D. Economist at Knightsbridge holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Crypto, Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.