Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) short term breakout pattern forming with resistance near $3,650

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) short term breakout pattern forming with resistance near $3,650

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) short term breakout pattern forming with resistance near $3,650

This past week, bitcoin price started a major downward move from the $4,037 swing high against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair declined heavily and broke the $4,000, $3,800, $3,725 and $3,650 support levels. The decline was nasty as there was a close below the $3,725 level and the 100 simple moving average (4-hours). It traded close to the $3,550 support area and later started consolidating losses. An initial resistance on the upside is near the $3,650 and $3,660 levels.

More importantly, there is a short term breakout pattern forming with resistance near $3,650 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair. Therefore, the pair seems to be preparing the next break either above $3,650 or below $3,550 in the near term. A break above the $3,650 level may push the price towards the $3,660. It represents the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the $4,037 high to $3,549 low. A successful close above the $3,660 and $3,665 level may open the doors for a bullish recovery towards $3,725. The main resistance is near the $3,790 level. It coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the $4,037 high to $3,549 low.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

The projected upper bound is: 4,014.50.

The projected lower bound is: 3,018.86.

The projected closing price is: 3,516.68.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 9.7994. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.51. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 28 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -131.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 2.330 at 3,519.740. Volume was 62% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 49% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
3,517.3103,611.4003,483.0403,519.740 29,565

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 3,783.75 3,734.42 5,819.16
Volatility: 69 84 67
Volume: 76,148 89,958 82,718

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 39.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 25 periods.

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