Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) risks falling to $9,855
Bitcoin’s volatility has hit its lowest level in over four months – a price squeeze that may force a significant move either way.
BTC’s bull run stalled at highs above $13,800 on June 26 and prices have created lower highs and higher lows ever since.
Notably, the trading range has narrowed sharply over the last two weeks, with bitcoin consolidating between $9,850 and 10,950, as per Bitstamp data.
As a result, the Bollinger bands – volatility indicators placed 2 standard deviations above and below the price’s 20-day moving average – have narrowed sharply.
Technical Indicators
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 11,092.71.
The projected lower bound is: 9,275.96.
The projected closing price is: 10,184.33.
Candlesticks
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
Momentum Indicators
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
Stochastic Oscillator
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 37.8199. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.56. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 83 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -81. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.
MACD
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed down -80.080 at 10,171.670. Volume was 23% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 56% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
10,248.00010,292.00010,057.80010,171.670 68,308
Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 10,240.70 10,486.16 8,095.70
Volatility: 27 55 78
Volume: 75,761 83,577 83,014
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
Summary
FOREX BTC= is currently 25.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.
