Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) risks are tilted to the downside

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) risks are tilted to the downside

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) risks are tilted to the downside

While Bitcoin is sitting in a narrow range, experts and analysts are trying to predict where the market has hit the bottom or there is more pain in store ahead for crypto bulls. Considering that Bitcoin has been trading in the narrowest 20-week range in two weeks the breakout seems imminent, and this time the risks are tilted to the downside, Blomberg research shows.

BTC/USD is trading off the Asian high of $6,586, as fresh selling interest located on approach to critical $6,600 won’t let it higher. The price is supported by SMA100 and SMA50 (1-hour) at $6,529 and $6,500 respectively. Once this area is cleared, the sell-off may be extended towards the vital support at $6,400.

On the upside, the resistance created by SMA200 (1-hour) at $6,550 separates the bulls from their ultimate short-term goal at $6,600. This hurdle needs to be taken out to cement the recovery and open the way to $7,000.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 7,039.07.

The projected lower bound is: 6,065.26.

The projected closing price is: 6,552.17.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 50.6283. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.31. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 57 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -45.700 at 6,546.300. Volume was 70% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 65% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
6,542.6706,626.0006,506.0006,546.300 25,964

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 6,568.72 6,603.14 7,325.84
Volatility: 29 47 90
Volume: 66,263 81,707 76,730

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 10.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods.

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