Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Risk of Break Grows

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Risk of Break Grows

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Risk of Break Grows

Recently, bitcoin price rebounded nicely after trading as low as $3,872 against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair gained traction and traded above the $3,940 and $3,960 resistance levels. However, the $4,000 level acted as a strong resistance and prevented further gains. A swing high was formed near $3,999 and later the price corrected lower. There was a dip below the $3,980 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $3,872 low to $3,999 high.

However, the key $3,940 support area acted as a strong barrier for sellers. The price found support just above $3,940 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $3,872 low to $3,999 high. It is currently moving higher and trading near the $3,980 resistance. There is also a key bearish trend line formed with resistance at $3,980 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Above the trend line, the 100 hourly SMA is positioned near the $3,985 level.

Therefore, a break above the trend line, the 100 hourly SMA, and $4,000 is must for buyers to gain control. Above $4,000, the next key resistance is near the $4,020 level, above which the price is likely to test the $4,045 resistance. On the downside, an initial support is at $3,960. However, the main support is near $3,940, which may continue to hold losses.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 3,878.94.

The projected upper bound is: 4,371.99.

The projected lower bound is: 3,751.73.

The projected closing price is: 4,061.86.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.

If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX BTC=), it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 38.5617. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 23 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.04. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 28 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 54. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 76.210 at 4,049.500. Volume was 16% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 50% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
3,970.8204,064.7003,955.1304,049.500 58,005

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 4,009.48 3,805.14 4,728.93
Volatility: 50 52 64
Volume: 62,255 65,903 74,056

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 14.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 41 periods.

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