Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) recovering nicely from its monthly lows
Bitcoin is having a pretty good week. A bullish trend, which began on Monday, has seen the price of Bitcoin recover from its monthly low of $7,762 two weeks ago.
During the last four days, Bitcoin has climbed, but it’s met strong resistance near the $8,700 per coin mark.
This is a key zone, because it marks the EMA 200 line (the Exponential Moving Average of the last 200 days, which gives an approximation of what the actual price of BTC should be if we consider its performance in the previous months.
Yesterday, a gentle bullish push that started at $8,180 sparked optimism in traders and hodlers. The bulls expected it to cross the EMA200 as confirmation of a trend that could lead BTC to at least a zone near $9,500.
And, in fact, it did—but not for long.
At 3:00 UTC, the bulls broke that barrier for a few minutes, but soon tired out. Almost immediately, the price corrected to below $8,500 per bitcoin, according to TradingView.
Currently, Bitcoin is priced at about $8,555 and is having difficulty taking off. Although this may seem discouraging for traders in the short term, the truth is that these small corrections serve to balance the markets. A trend without corrections increases its risk over time.
Zooming out, Bitcoin still remains in a downward channel. Most analysts believe that before talk of any possible rally can begin, Bitcoin must first break the resistance of this channel located near a price of $9,500.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 9,254.29.
The projected upper bound is: 9,322.44.
The projected lower bound is: 7,710.32.
The projected closing price is: 8,516.38.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 86.1831. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.47. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 138.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed down -29.980 at 8,549.000. Volume was 74% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 15% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 8,269.13 9,473.81 8,637.15
Volatility: 44 55 80
Volume: 81,736 80,271 85,448
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 1.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.
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