Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Rally To Be Absurd

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Rally To Be Absurd

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Rally To Be Absurd

The sky’s the limit — that’s what Bitcoin (BTC) enthusiasts want to desperately believe anyway. As the cryptocurrency market has finally broken out of its bear market shell, rallying by over 100% since the start of 2018, many are sure that “crypto winter” is over and the next rally is on. And while expectations for the next bull run have varied, a majority are coming to the conclusion that the next market cycle will be more intense than any before it. Here’s why.

Misir Mahmudov, the analyst brother of Goldman Sachs employee turned cryptocurrency die-hard/fund manager Murad Mahmudov, noted that Square’s Cash App has become the #1 Finance app in the U.S. Apple App Store. While this doesn’t seem relevant, Square is a relatively large Bitcoin vendor. In fact, according to the Q1 2019 results that were published in late-April, Square secured $65.5 million in Bitcoin revenues, implying that $65.5 million worth of BTC was purchased. Assuming Q1’s average Bitcoin price of around $3,790 (CoinMetrics & The Block), Square sold an approximated 17,300 BTC during that period — Cash App’s fees and spreads not taken into account. During that same time frame, 162,000 BTC was mined, assuming that the Bitcoin network keeps to its standard emission rate of 1,800 BTC each day. This implies that Square’s users absorbed 11% of all BTC mined through their purchases.

Misir notes that this is relevant because the upcoming rally will be the “first bull run [during which an] established financial business lets you buy Bitcoin,” adding a quippy “buckle up” to accentuate the importance of this.

What’s more, Blockchain.com, Coinbase, among other crypto-related applications have begun to trend on app stores across the globe, signifying growing retail interest. But the reason why Square specifically is so important is that it is trusted, and is a massive on-ramp simultaneously.

This isn’t the only factor that has Bitcoin zealots believing that the next rally will be absurd. Marty Bent, the co-host of “Tales From The Crypt”, recently explained that with the infrastructure being more robust than ever, the block rewards falling to 6.25 coins per block, and geopolitical tensions, namely the U.S.-China trade war, reaching heights not seen in years, it will be “awe-inspiring”.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 6,174.67.

The projected upper bound is: 8,388.69.

The projected lower bound is: 6,909.09.

The projected closing price is: 7,648.89.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 32 white candles and 18 black candles for a net of 14 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 64.3834. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 62.10. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 21. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -219.850 at 7,602.450. Volume was 40% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 200% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
7,836.0007,838.9007,493.5007,602.450 43,879

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 7,742.09 5,948.75 4,493.65
Volatility: 93 70 75
Volume: 100,617 80,772 77,655

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 69.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into BTC= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 20 periods. our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period low while the security price has not. This is a bearish divergence.

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