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Sunday, June 20, 2021

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Rallies Around Holidays

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Rallies Around Holidays

There’s a reason as to why many in the community expect Bitcoin to rally around the holidays. First of all, the order books are relatively thinner as at least a huge chunk of traders in the US are busy attending family feasts or preparing for making Black Friday purchases.

Also, it is not difficult to imagine that the asset class may also gain some word-of-mouth publicity as dinner table discussions gravitate towards financial topics. Who knows how many investors or traders previously skeptical about cryptocurrencies had a change of heart during these family get-togethers?

If you remember, Bitcoin gained a considerable momentum shortly after Thanksgiving 2017, ensuring a return of more than 16% over the next three days. That was the start of a new wave of growth that eventually pushed BTC to its all-time-high weeks after.

Although much of the following year was spent struggling against the remarkably cold crypto-winter, the asset again displayed a somewhat bullish behavior around the Christmas and New Year’s Eve holidays (although various additional factors were probably at play behind those patterns).

Of note here is that a 2019 study on Bitcoin’s performance around holidays echoed these sentiments as well. The study, conducted by cryptocurrency prime dealer SFOX, claimed that there is plenty of evidence to suggest that Bitcoin tends to gain momentum around holidays such as Thanksgiving, Christmas, and Independence Day.

However, the moot point of the study can not be taken at the face value considering that there have been plenty of occasions when Bitcoin failed to capitalize on the stated perks of holidays.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 8,294.36.

The projected upper bound is: 8,303.61.

The projected lower bound is: 6,649.93.

The projected closing price is: 7,476.77.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 16 white candles and 34 black candles for a net of 18 black candles.

A bearish harami occurred (where the current small black body is contained within an unusually large white body). During an uptrend this pattern implies an end to the rally as the bulls appear to have exhausted themselves.

During a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX BTC=) the bearish harami pattern is bullish as the bulls appear to be gaining strength as the bears weaken.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 74.4993. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 29 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.30. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -29. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 20 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -47.580 at 7,498.540. Volume was 6% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 33% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
7,546.1207,684.8007,328.6707,498.540 84,140
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 7,480.39 8,421.20 9,403.10
Volatility: 63 64 78
Volume: 79,705 77,996 86,440

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 20.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of BTC= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods.

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