Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) price struggled to gain traction above the $3,840

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) price struggled to gain traction above the $3,840

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) price struggled to gain traction above the $3,840

There was an increase in selling pressure on bitcoin price after it failed to clear the $3,850 level against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair started a downside move and broke the $3,800 and $3,700 support levels. It even broke the $3,600 level and traded as low as $3,563. There could be a short term correction from $3,563, but the price is trading well below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

An initial resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $3,855 high to $3,563 low. Moreover, yesterday’s highlighted major bearish trend line is intact with resistance at $3,720 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Finally, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $3,855 high to $3,563 low is near the trend line. Therefore, if there is an upside correction, the price is likely to struggle near $3,720 and $3,800. A proper break above the trend line and the $3,800 resistance is needed for a decent upward move. If not, the price may continue to decline and it may even break the $3,500 support in the near term.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

The projected upper bound is: 4,213.51.

The projected lower bound is: 2,900.43.

The projected closing price is: 3,556.97.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.

An inverted hammer occurred. If this occurs during a downtrend it implies a reversal. Look for a confirmation of the reversal on the bar.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

A shooting star occurred (a shooting star has a small real body near the bottom of the candle and a long upper shadow). During an uptrend the long upper shadow indicates that the bears are gaining control and a top may occur.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 7.9621. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.64. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -26. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 28 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 26.620 at 3,613.110. Volume was 41% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 4% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
3,581.0503,766.9003,563.6503,613.110 45,624

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 3,844.62 4,216.25 6,039.22
Volatility: 82 96 66
Volume: 99,084 92,565 83,969

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 40.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.

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