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Wednesday, December 1, 2021

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) price started a fresh decline

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) price started a fresh decline

This week, bitcoin failed to clear the $8,300 resistance area against the US Dollar. BTC price started a fresh decline and broke many support near the $8,000 handle.

As a result, the bears took control and the price dived more than 8% in the past three sessions. It broke the $7,800 and $7,600 supports levels. Moreover, there was a clear break below $7,500 and the price settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

Finally, a new monthly low was formed near $7,302 and the price is currently correcting higher. It recovered above the $7,400 level, plus the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $8,021 high to $7,302 low.

At the moment, the price is consolidating above the $7,400 and is facing hurdles. An immediate resistance is near the $7,440 level. Additionally, there are two connecting bearish trend lines forming with resistance near $7,450 and $7,660 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

The second trend line coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $8,021 high to $7,302 low. If there is an upside break above the $7,660 resistance, the price could recover towards the $7,800 and $7,880 resistance levels (the previous supports).

On the downside, the $7,380 level is an immediate support. If there is a downside break below $7,380, the price could revisit the $7,300 support area. Any further losses are likely to call for a push towards the $7,200 and $7,120 levels.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

The projected upper bound is: 8,087.59.

The projected lower bound is: 6,611.64.

The projected closing price is: 7,349.62.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 17 white candles and 33 black candles for a net of 16 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 27.5089. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 31.17. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 17 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -208.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -76.210 at 7,413.790. Volume was 93% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 47% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
7,487.6907,515.0007,307.9707,413.790 5,542
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 7,949.20 8,946.98 8,865.24
Volatility: 58 54 76
Volume: 66,876 79,180 85,128

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 16.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 30 periods.

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