Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Price Could Sink Even Further

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Price Could Sink Even Further

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Price Could Sink Even Further

Analysts at JP Morgan have predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) could fall below $1,260, while banks will not benefit from blockchain for at least three to five years, Reuters reported on Jan. 24.

According to Reuters, analysts from the major global investment bank think that the true value of cryptos is still unproven, and that they only make sense in a hypothetical “dystopian” event, wherein investors have lost faith in major traditional assets like gold and the U.S. dollar. The analysts stated in a report:

“Even in extreme scenarios such as a recession or financial crises, there are more liquid and less-complicated instruments for transacting, investing and hedging [than cryptocurrencies].”

JP Morgan also said that institutional involvement in the crypto market has slumped over the past six months, with individual traders making up the majority of the market. In its crypto report, the company claimed that using crypto for payments will remain “challenged,” adding that the firm was unable to find any major retailers that accepted crypto in 2018.

JP Morgan’s analysts have further suggested that Bitcoin is likely to drop to around $2,400, and could even fall below $1,260 if the current bear market persists. At press time, the biggest cryptocurrency is trading at $3,595, down around 1.7 over the past week, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

While JP Morgan forecasted that “widely-hyped” blockchain technology will not make any real difference for banks at least three to five years, the investment bank still concluded that distributed ledger technology (DLT) has potential to cut costs for global banks and digitize various complex processes.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 3,977.94.

The projected lower bound is: 3,129.01.

The projected closing price is: 3,553.48.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 39.4171. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.80. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 39 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -41. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -16.650 at 3,554.260. Volume was 68% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 45% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
3,570.9103,663.4003,541.7003,554.260 26,372

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 3,582.36 3,662.34 5,659.19
Volatility: 37 74 67
Volume: 65,058 82,883 80,805

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 37.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.

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