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Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) price could be nearing a reversal point

03 Feb 2014, Los Angeles, California, USA --- Bitcoin is a digital peer to peer decentralized crypto-currency. Bitcoin is now accepted as a form of payment for many businesses and private transactions of goods and services. --- Image by © Ted Soqui/Corbis

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) price could be nearing a reversal point

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is at a crucial inflection point, as it is currently trading around its critical support level of $6,500. Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market in general have been in a slow-motion meltdown mode after Bitcoin hit a high of roughly $14,000 in late June. Since then, Bitcoin has lost more than 50% of its value and may be headed even lower if this critical level of support at $6,500 fails.

Nevertheless, despite the recent volatility, Bitcoin and other systemically important digital assets have a strong probability of recovering from current levels, likely have very limited downside from here, and should appreciate significantly in future years.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 7,925.79.

The projected upper bound is: 7,631.06.

The projected lower bound is: 6,502.32.

The projected closing price is: 7,066.69.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 31 black candles for a net of 12 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 75.7762. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 19 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.64. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -26. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -82.160 at 7,108.340. Volume was 65% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 58% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
7,160.0007,191.9006,983.4307,108.340 28,927
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 7,080.69 7,896.69 9,309.68
Volatility: 61 47 75
Volume: 82,077 81,843 85,303

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 23.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 36 periods.

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