Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) preparing for a breakout?

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) preparing for a breakout?

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) preparing for a breakout?

The bitcoin price on Wednesday jumped as high as 4.65 percent from its opening price and established an intraday high at $3,488.

The BTC/USD rate is now trading at 3440-fiat on the Coinbase exchange, coupled with a notable rise in daily volatility. The pair on December 7 established its yearly low at 3210-fiat, after which it consolidated within a circa $300 range. It established a top near 3650-fiat only to find itself pulled back strong bearish presence near the level. Historically, BTC/USD now is looking to retest the same top, providing it punctures through some parameters to its upside.

That said, according to the Coinbase chart above, the BTC/USD rate is already trending inside a falling wedge pattern, as also discussed in some of our previous analysis. As the pair breaks above the upper trendline, it would likely set its near-term upside targets towards the 200-period moving average depicted in red, while testing 3650-fiat as an intermediate resistance level. The technicalities attached with a falling wedge formation expects a breakout formation. So is bitcoin, after months of depressive price action, finally preparing for a breakout?

Then again, the bitcoin price has failed to post a convincing upside action lately, and one shouldn’t be surprised if BTC/USD reverses towards the south. We expect the bears to take over once the pair breaks below its 50-period moving average curve depicted in blue. At worst, BTC/USD would form a double bottom at 3210-fiat followed by another breakdown session towards a bottomless pit — or the lower trendline of the prevailing falling wedge formation.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 4,758.92.

The projected upper bound is: 3,914.36.

The projected lower bound is: 2,705.27.

The projected closing price is: 3,309.81.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 31 black candles for a net of 12 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 31.2818. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 31.34. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -68.800 at 3,370.880. Volume was 49% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 1% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
3,441.2503,548.4003,332.9003,370.880 37,897

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 3,500.52 5,031.46 6,322.39
Volatility: 77 84 65
Volume: 95,753 80,576 81,542

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 46.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 30 periods.

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