Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) poised to break its six-month losing streak
The bitcoin price has lost ground every month since September, taking a heavy blow in November due to a developer civil war that threatened to tear apart bitcoin rival, bitcoin cash.
But the bitcoin bulls have been out in force over the last few weeks, making bold predictions about how high the bitcoin price could eventually go and jumping on news that the bitter crypto winter could be coming to an end.
Bitcoin’s latest win comes from one of the oldest and largest Swiss Banks, Julius Bär, which this week announced it will soon begin offering a range of new digital assets for its clients.
Earlier in the week, U.S. stock exchange Nasdaq added two new digital currency price indexes for bitcoin and ethereum as the exchange prepares to offer tradeable bitcoin and crypto futures.
“The last eight months is already being dubbed the ‘crypto winter’ and while prices were falling, it was understandable that the large incumbent financial institutions had shelved some of their crypto projects,” senior market analyst at brokerage eToro Mati Greenspan wrote in a note to clients. “Now that the market is showing signs that spring is coming, those plans are back on the table. After all, they wouldn’t want to miss out on the next bull run.”
The last bitcoin bull run, which saw the bitcoin price explode from under $1,000 per bitcoin at the beginning of the year to almost $20,000 by December 2017, resulted in a hangover that’s seen bitcoin lost some 80% of its value.
Some $400 billion in value has been wiped from the cryptocurrency market over the past 12 months as adoption stalls and banks put closely-watched plans to wade into bitcoin and cryptocurrencies on hold.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 3,860.59.
The projected upper bound is: 4,070.20.
The projected lower bound is: 3,524.93.
The projected closing price is: 3,797.56.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.
An inverted hammer occurred. If this occurs during a downtrend it implies a reversal. Look for a confirmation of the reversal on the bar.
A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
A shooting star occurred (a shooting star has a small real body near the bottom of the candle and a long upper shadow). During an uptrend(which appears to be the case with FOREX BTC=) the long upper shadow indicates that the bears are gaining control and a top may occur.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 24.1068. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.20. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -21. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed down -4.210 at 3,794.230. Volume was 93% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 27% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 3,865.27 3,620.47 5,047.53
Volatility: 48 47 64
Volume: 64,788 70,413 77,113
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 24.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods.
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