Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) needs to break above $13,200 to revive the stalled bull market
Bitcoin (BTC) now needs to break above $13,200 to revive the stalled bull market, a key monthly chart pattern suggests.
The top cryptocurrency by market value created an “inside bar” pattern in July, with the monthly high and low of $13,200 and $9,049, respectively, falling within June’s trading range of $13,880 to $7,432.
An inside bar candle is characterized by a higher low and a lower high than the previous candle, and represents an indecisive market or consolidation in a narrowing price range.
A convincing break above the inside bar’s high is widely considered a sign of a bullish breakout. As such, July’s high of $13,200 is now the level to beat for the bulls.
As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $11,220 on Bitstamp, representing little change on a 24-hour basis.
BTC has created a lower high at the lower edge of a flag pattern (above left) in the last 24 hours, reinforcing the bearish view put forward by the flag breakdown – a bearish continuation pattern – confirmed yesterday.
Selling volume is again ticking up, validating the bearish setup, while the relative strength index, too, is reporting bearish conditions with a below-50 print. The 5- and 10-day moving averages (MAs) have produced a bearish crossover.
As a result, prices may well drop toward the 5-week moving average, currently at $10,778.
The bearish case would weaken if prices rise above $11,431, invalidating the bearish lower highs setup. In that case, $12,000 could come into play.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 10,411.57.
The projected upper bound is: 12,464.40.
The projected lower bound is: 8,741.74.
The projected closing price is: 10,603.07.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 16.2607. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.75. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 48 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -76. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed down -247.649 at 10,617.900. Volume was 71% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 12% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11,443.45 10,919.49 6,947.41
Volatility: 63 106 78
Volume: 82,928 92,702 80,735
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 52.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods. our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period low while the security price has not. This is a bearish divergence.