Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) must stay above $8,600 to remain in uptrend and start a fresh increase
This past week, there was a slow and steady decline in bitcoin below the $8,400 support against the US Dollar. Moreover, BTC price also traded below the $8,200 support area. Finally, it spiked below the $8,000 support, but remained well above the 100 simple moving average (4-hours).
A swing low was formed near $8,960 and the price recently started an upward move. There was a break above the $8,100 and $8,200 resistance levels to start a decent increase.
More importantly, there was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near $9,240 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair. At the moment, the price is trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $10,584 high to $8,960 low.
If there are more gains, the price could continue to rise towards the $9,500 and $9,600 resistance levels. Besides, the main resistance is near the $9,770 level. It represents the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $10,584 high to $8,960 low.
On the downside, there are many supports between $9,200 and $8,960. If there is a bearish break below the $8,960 swing low, there are chances of a sharp decline. The next key support is near $8,600 and the 100 simple moving average (4-hours).
Therefore, the $8,500 and $8,600 support levels are likely to play an important role. As long as the price is above the $8,500 support, there are chances of a fresh increase above the $9,500 level.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 9,468.85.
The projected lower bound is: 8,785.55.
The projected closing price is: 9,127.20.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 40.6025. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 36 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.78. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 40 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -121.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed down -32.100 at 9,127.960. Volume was 17% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 69% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 9,240.98 9,289.80 8,451.35
Volatility: 17 23 28
Volume: 11,532 13,249 12,882
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 8.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods. our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period low while the security price has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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