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Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) must gain pace above the $8,000 barrier to move into a positive zone


Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) must gain pace above the $8,000 barrier to move into a positive zone

Recently, bitcoin price traded to a new weekly swing low close to $7,500 against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair found support near $7,500 and recently started a decent upward move. It broke the $7,600 and $7,700 resistance levels to start a recovery. There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the key drop from the $8,130 high to $7,515 swing low. It opened the doors for more gains above the $7,800 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

Moreover, yesterday’s highlighted key bearish trend line was breached with resistance near $7,780 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The pair even spiked above the $8,000 level, but it failed to gain bullish momentum above the $8,050 level. A swing high was formed near $8,080 and the price is currently consolidating gain. An initial support is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $7,519 swing low to $8,080 high. Besides, there is a short term contracting triangle forming with resistance near $8,050. If there is an upside break, the price could continue to rise in the near term.

Conversely, if there is a downside break below $7,900, the price could test the $7,850 support area. The 100 hourly SMA is also just above $7,850 to act as a support. The next support is close to the $7,800 level. It represents the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $7,519 swing low to $8,080 high.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

The projected upper bound is: 8,846.66.

The projected lower bound is: 7,092.61.

The projected closing price is: 7,969.63.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 58.9588. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 52.77. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -18.620 at 7,918.680. Volume was 61% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 1% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
7,949.0008,063.9807,893.8307,918.680 31,064

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 7,941.86 7,099.43 4,735.68
Volatility: 70 76 72
Volume: 78,820 83,747 79,031

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 67.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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S. Jack Heffernan Ph.D. Economist at Knightsbridge holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Crypto, Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.