Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) moved into a bearish zone

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) moved into a bearish zone

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) moved into a bearish zone

Yesterday, we discussed that bitcoin price could climb higher towards the $6,800 level against the US Dollar. However, the BTC/USD pair failed to break the $6,640 and $6,700 resistance levels. It resulted in a downside move below the $6,550 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average. The price moved into a bearish zone as it cleared the important $6,500 support as well.

During the decline, yesterday’s highlighted key bullish trend line was breached with support at $6,560 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair The pair even broke the last swing low at $6,490. Finally, it tested the 1.236 Fib extension level of the last wave from the $6,491 low to $6,687 high. The price formed an intraday low at $6,441 and it is currently correcting higher. An initial resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $6,687 high to $6,441 low. If buyers push the price above the $6,500 level, the next stop could be the $6,560 level. The stated $6,560 level along with the 100 hourly SMA are likely to act as hurdles for buyers.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 6,679.07.

The projected lower bound is: 5,681.43.

The projected closing price is: 6,180.25.


A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 29.7373. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 63 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -314.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -352.880 at 6,183.120. Volume was 77% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 68% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
6,636.9006,636.9006,037.0306,183.120 18,983

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 6,531.97 6,618.64 7,259.43
Volatility: 39 48 90
Volume: 56,995 77,182 76,698

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 14.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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