Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) May Soon Reverse
For some reason or another, analysts have begun to believe that Bitcoin (BTC) may be poised for a correction. In a recent Trading View post, Magic Poop Cannon postulated that BTC is currently expressing a number of bearish signals. Firstly, Bitcoin failed to hold above its uptrend channel, all while failing to surmount a “major overhead resistance zone” that begins at $5,777 and ends at $6,200.
What’s more, there are an array of bearish divergences seen in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and the Stochastic RSI, leading Magic to the conclusion that BTC is “wounded” and not prepared to enter a bull run just yet. He adds that the Network Value to Transactions ratio (NVT) is currently flashing a sell.
Aside from technicals, some evidence is mounting that in the short run, BTC’s price action is tied to traditional assets, namely stocks, which is a bad sign.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
The projected upper bound is: 6,429.07.
The projected lower bound is: 5,412.48.
The projected closing price is: 5,920.77.
A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 33 white candles and 17 black candles for a net of 16 white candles.
An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.
If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX BTC=), it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 79.6053. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 70.07. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 132.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed up 191.270 at 5,884.600. Volume was 75% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 14% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 5,496.42 4,929.35 4,416.69
Volatility: 37 67 70
Volume: 54,437 72,250 74,208
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 33.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that BTC= is currently in an overbought condition.
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