Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) major trend remains down

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) major trend remains down

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) major trend remains down

Bitcoin is trying to pull back from the $3,500–$3,000 support zone. In this leg of the down move that started on Nov. 14, the pullbacks have not lasted more than three days. Hence, we remain cautious.

The downtrend line and the 20-day EMA are both placed at the same level. Therefore, we anticipate it to act as a major roadblock. If the bulls push prices above the 20-day EMA, the recovery can extend to $4,500 and above it to the $5,000 level. The major trend remains down. Therefore, we are not confirming a bottom yet. After the initial pullback, the next leg down will confirm whether the bottom is in place or if the BTC/USD pair has farther to go on the downside.

Our bullish view will be invalidated if the price turns down from the downtrend line and slumps below the Dec. 15 low of $3,236.09. Traders who are long can hold on to their positions. Depending on the performance at higher levels, we shall propose either adding or reducing the positions.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 4,612.34.

The projected upper bound is: 4,065.80.

The projected lower bound is: 2,821.34.

The projected closing price is: 3,443.57.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 49.4955. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 40.23. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 58. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 18 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 7.300 at 3,498.450. Volume was 62% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 11% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
3,489.8503,677.7003,465.0903,498.450 28,462

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 3,356.14 4,721.61 6,219.39
Volatility: 88 89 66
Volume: 89,856 83,844 82,017

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 43.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 35 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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