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Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) losing altitude after rejection near the psychological hurdle of $11,000


Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) losing altitude after rejection near the psychological hurdle of $11,000

Bitcoin is losing altitude after rejection near the psychological hurdle of $11,000 earlier today, and may fall below $10,000 in the next 24 hours.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value rose to a high of $10,956 at 00:03 UTC today on Bitstamp, extending its recovery from the Aug. 15 low of $9,467.

The rise to $11,000 was expected, as the cryptocurrency’s hourly chart was reporting a high-volume ascending channel breakout or a bullish continuation pattern yesterday.

The momentum, however, soon petered out just short of $11,000 and prices fell back below $10,800 by 03:30 UTC. Another wave of selling hit the markets in the European morning session, pushing BTC lower to $10,550 in the 75 minutes to 09:00 UTC.

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $10,690 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.25 percent loss on a 24-hour basis. Prices are still up more than $1,000 from the low of $9,467 seen on Aug. 15.

Investors have associated the recent recovery with Friday’s announcement by the Bakkt exchange that it will be launching physically-settled bitcoin futures on Sept. 23, with some believing the news marks a long-term bullish development for bitcoin.

In the short-term, however, there is a strong probability that BTC will fall back below $10,000, as the recovery from recent lows has taken the shape of a bearish reversal pattern.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 12,187.29.

The projected lower bound is: 9,471.67.

The projected closing price is: 10,829.48.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 83.9234. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.68. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 55 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -10. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 92.920 at 10,826.920. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 21% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
10,704.75010,862.00010,681.64010,826.920 2,526
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 10,587.50 10,771.91 7,191.82
Volatility: 60 80 79
Volume: 79,497 89,655 81,326

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 50.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods.

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S. Jack Heffernan Ph.D. Economist at Knightsbridge holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Crypto, Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.