Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Looking Ahead

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Looking Ahead

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Looking Ahead

Despite many investor’s laser-like focus on Bitcoin’s breathtaking rally, one currency that’s far outpacing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is Litecoin, up about 340% this year as of today with a market value of $8.3 billion. The digital coin has grown at far more than double the pace of Bitcoin in 2019, and is now the seventh-largest digital asset, according to data from Mosaic Research Ltd, according to a detailed story in Bloomberg as outlined below.

Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency with a roughly $160 billion market value, and it’s risen about 140% this year as of early afternoon trading. That’s pretty impressive, but that gain pales next to Litecoin’s surge.

Like Bitcoin, the key forces driving Litecoin’s rally include cryptocurrencies’ wider acceptance by established companies such as Facebook Inc. (FB), Fidelity Investments and AT&T Inc. (T) , as well as Litecoin’s upcoming halving, or “halvening.” This event, in which the number of coins awarded to Litecoin miners is reduced by 50%, is slated to occur on August 6. The forces sparking the gains “are justifiable and real and factual,” David Tawil, president of crypto hedge fund ProChain Capital told Bloomberg.

‘Halving’ Drives Crypto Prices

While miners currently get 25 new Litecoins per block, they will receive 12.5 going forward. Due to simple supply demand dynamics, a decrease in supply should drive up the price of the cryptocurrency, just as the crypto revival boosts the demand side.

“Every time we’ve seen a halving event in Bitcoin or Litecoin, the price has risen astronomically,” Mati Greenspan, senior market analyst at trading platform eToro, told Bloomberg. “So if that pattern continues, what we’ve seen so far is small potatoes in comparison,” he said. “This is quite normal for the crypto market.”

When the last Litcoin halvening took place four years ago, the price of the digital currency jumped roughly 60% in the three months leading up to it, per CoinMarketCap.com. Bitcoin has experienced similar rallies in the run-up to its halvenings, and is expected to undergo its next one next May. 

Looking Ahead

While Litecoin is surging, and many bulls expect the currency to blow past its record highs, many experts warn that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are still primarily used for speculation, and very little for commerce. Litecoin also is vulnerable to the same forces that have plagued Bitcoin, like its volatility and speculation, and the collapse of prices that took place in 2018. Litecoin “only thrives if Bitcoin is valuable,” said Aaron Brown, an investor who contributes to Bloomberg Opinion. He added, “It’s an established, convenient transaction currency well suited to a world in which Bitcoin is the store of value. I don’t think it has much value in a world in which Bitcoin prices are low.”

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

The projected upper bound is: 10,151.26.

The projected lower bound is: 8,412.78.

The projected closing price is: 9,282.02.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 33 white candles and 17 black candles for a net of 16 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 79.6822. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 69.44. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 103.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 61.070 at 9,202.700. Volume was 66% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 29% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
9,122.7509,218.9008,932.8309,202.700 27,627

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 8,613.37 7,655.00 4,929.86
Volatility: 29 72 68
Volume: 77,812 85,192 78,334

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 86.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into BTC= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.

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