Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) likely to bounce back as long as it is above $6,440

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) likely to bounce back as long as it is above $6,440

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) likely to bounce back as long as it is above $6,440

Yesterday, we saw a nice upward move above the $6,500 resistance in bitcoin price against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair traded as high as $6,553 and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average. Later, the price started a downside correction and traded below $6,510 and $6,500. Moreover, there was a break below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $6,369 low to $6,553 high.

However, the price is now trading near a major support area at $6,440. More importantly, there is a significant bullish trend line in place with support at $6,440 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Besides, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $6,369 low to $6,553 high is also near $6,440. Therefore, the price is likely to hold the $6,440 support and it could resume its upside move. An initial resistance is near $6,480, above which the price may well break the $6,500 barrier again. On the other hand, a break below the $6,440 support could push the price towards the next support at $6,375.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 6,721.18.

The projected lower bound is: 6,085.93.

The projected closing price is: 6,403.56.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 44.2464. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 46 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.37. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 92 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 38. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -17.000 at 6,403.000. Volume was 65% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 72% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
6,412.6006,509.0006,368.2006,403.000 25,280

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 6,388.57 6,469.52 7,056.65
Volatility: 13 31 54
Volume: 58,323 61,357 76,833

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 9.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

The following two tabs change content below.
HEFFX has become one of Asia’s leading financial services companies with interests in Publishing, Private Equity, Capital Markets, Mining, Retail, Transport and Agriculture that span every continent of the world. Our clearing partners have unprecedented experience in Equities, Options, Forex and Commodities brokering, banking, physical metals dealing, floor brokering and trading.

You must be logged in to post comments :