Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) lacking clear directional bias

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) lacking clear directional bias

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) lacking clear directional bias

Bitcoin’s struggle for direction continues amid growing signs of a bull reversal in alternative cryptocurrencies.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value is trapped in the range of $3,800 to $3,900 for a ninth straight day, contradicting the quick move toward the recent high of $4,190 suggested by the long-tailed doji candle created on Feb. 27. The immediate outlook, therefore, is neutral.

Shayne Heffernan said he did not expect to see a breakout prior till April, “Bitcoin has become range-bound and the volatility has moved on to other cryptos, this could be the establishment of a new long term base but without a fundamental shift in usability there is nothing to indicate substantial upside for now.”

As of writing, the cryptocurrency is flatlined at $3,847 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.10 percent gain on a 24-hour basis.

Further, BTC is reporting a meager 4 percent gain on a year-to-date (YTD) basis, as opposed to stellar gains in few altcoins. For instance, litecoin, the fourth largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is currently up 83.9 percent on a YTD basis.

The week-long price consolidation in the range of $3,800-$3,900 seen in the above chart has weakened the bullish case put forward by the long-tailed doji candle created on Feb. 27. As a result, the 100-day MA support at $3,670 could again come into play.

On the higher side, a UTC close above $3,950 is needed to revive the short-term bullish outlook.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 3,858.83.

The projected upper bound is: 4,150.99.

The projected lower bound is: 3,575.68.

The projected closing price is: 3,863.33.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

An inverted hammer occurred. If this occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX BTC=) it implies a reversal. Look for a confirmation of the reversal on the bar.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

A shooting star occurred (a shooting star has a small real body near the bottom of the candle and a long upper shadow). During an uptrend(which appears to be the case with FOREX BTC=) the long upper shadow indicates that the bears are gaining control and a top may occur.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 43.2339. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.02. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 19 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 5. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -91.700 at 3,857.600. Volume was 86% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 59% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
3,852.8603,966.9003,844.1503,857.600 10,404

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 3,901.97 3,704.47 4,868.59
Volatility: 31 49 65
Volume: 52,549 66,085 74,581

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 20.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 32 periods.

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