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Saturday, November 27, 2021

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) key resistance at $8,820

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) key resistance at $8,820

A widely tracked short-term bitcoin price indicator has turned bullish, strengthening the case for a test of key resistance above $8,800.

The cryptocurrency’s 50-hour moving average (MA) has crossed above the 200-hour MA, confirming what is popularly known as “golden cross” – a bullish indicator.

MA studies are based on backward-looking data and tend to lag prices. A golden cross, therefore, is widely considered as a lagging indicator, especially when it appears on longer duration charts. However, the crossovers on the hourly and other short duration charts follow prices more closely and are thus more reliable as trend indicators.

For instance, BTC drew bids and rose from $8,150 to $8,820, extending the recovery from $7,800 following the Oct. 9 golden cross on the hourly chart.

On similar lines, the latest bull cross may accelerate the ongoing recovery rally, pushing prices higher to $8,820 – a bearish lower high created on Oct. 11.

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $8,280, representing a 0.53 percent gain on a 24-hour basis.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

The projected upper bound is: 8,613.03.

The projected lower bound is: 7,216.77.

The projected closing price is: 7,914.90.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 17 white candles and 33 black candles for a net of 16 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 56.8586. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.47. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -80. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 18 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -152.100 at 7,969.900. Volume was 72% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 65% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
8,159.0008,159.0007,826.9107,969.900 23,370
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 8,089.39 9,020.75 8,856.17
Volatility: 39 50 76
Volume: 69,417 79,617 85,286

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 10.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 29 periods.

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