Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) is on its way to reinstating its reputation as a safe haven asset

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) is on its way to reinstating its reputation as a safe haven asset

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) is on its way to reinstating its reputation as a safe haven asset

Bitcoin is on its way to reinstating its reputation as a safe haven asset as it rallied by more than 10% in the past 24-hours.

The sudden move to the upside coincided with a further correction in global stock market indexes, with the Dow Jones and FTSE100 tumbling towards key levels of support.

At the time of writing Bitcoin is trading above $5,600 as it takes aim at the $5,800 level of resistance after consolidating over the past week.

A break above $5,800 moving into the typically low-volume weekend will be key for Bitcoin if it is to continue rallying until May’s halving event.

However, a rejection from this level could prompt a test of last week’s low of $3,600, which would in itself come alongside an abundance of fear and panic from investors.

The fact that Bitcoin seems to be finally decoupling with the stock market is undoubtedly bullish in the short term, with the global economy facing a daunting task to recover from the impact of coronavirus.

If a sudden spike in cases or mortality rates comes to fruition it would almost certainly worsen the plunge in global equities, especially as economic stimulus from developed nations has already been squeezed.

This is when Bitcoin will need to perform as many thought it would; by acting as a hedge to the traditional financial system in the same way gold has for decades.

That belief has been damaged over the past month with Bitcoin losing half of its value while several altcoins have fallen by more than 70%.

But the recent show of strength has clawed back the negative perception, with investors now eyeing up Bitcoin ahead of a potential breakout.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 7,693.21.

The projected upper bound is: 7,518.97.

The projected lower bound is: 4,858.35.

The projected closing price is: 6,188.66.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 18 white candles and 32 black candles for a net of 14 black candles.

A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 82.1883. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.95. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -17. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 0.970 at 6,254.470. Volume was 6% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 217% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
6,256.4706,452.9006,050.0006,254.470 219,055
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 5,850.70 8,662.03 8,452.60
Volatility: 254 125 79
Volume: 565,314 338,326 150,385

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 26.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 28 periods.

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