Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) is looking increasingly weak
Bitcoin is looking increasingly weak, having dropped nearly 2 percent on rising trading volumes Wednesday.
The top cryptocurrency by market value fell from $8,150 to $7,912 in the early U.S. trading hours on Wednesday before printing a UTC close at $7,996.
The price slide strengthened the case for a retest of recent lows near $7,750 put forward by Tuesday’s bearish “outside bar” candle.
Moreover, as reported, selling pressure has been building in recent days following bitcoin’s failure at the 200-day moving average hurdle on Oct. 11. The key MA is widely considered a barometer of the long-term trend.
At press time, BTC is changing hands at $8,100 on Bitstamp, representing a marginal loss on the day.
Prices have recovered more than 2 percent from Wednesday’s low near $7,920, but remain well below the 200-day MA, currently at $8,778. Therefore, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
The projected upper bound is: 8,839.82.
The projected lower bound is: 7,291.80.
The projected closing price is: 8,065.81.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 33.9461. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.60. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -66. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed up 50.400 at 8,094.400. Volume was 91% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 70% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 8,275.83 9,213.30 8,780.14
Volatility: 41 54 80
Volume: 75,325 80,166 85,824
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 7.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 24 periods.
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