Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Is Back to Where It Started in 2020
While some are quick to blame the panic surrounding the coronavirus, others are saying that separate factors are responsible. Tim Enneking – the managing director of Digital Capital Management – says that bitcoin spiked to $10,500 too quickly, and that what we’re experiencing now is all part of a “healthy” pullback. He explains:
The BTC plunge quite clearly has a variety of causes. The background cause was a healthy run-up to $10.5K in mid-February and an equally healthy pullback that had just about run its course. Near what would have normally been the end of that pullback, the Plus Token news hit, weakening markets that hadn’t quite yet begun to again show strength.
It’s hard to accept all these words as straight up facts. After all, the Plus Token news wouldn’t be likely to affect stocks and oil, yet these items tanked along with all the world’s major cryptocurrencies. How could an entire market meltdown occur at the hands of one crypto scam?
Yet, strangely, many analysts seem to agree with his sentiment. One such figure is Joe DiPasquale, the CEO of crypto hedge fund manager Bit Bull Capital. Last Saturday, DiPasquale mentioned that several of the Plus Token scammers may have cashed out as many as 13,000 units of the bitcoins they had stolen, thereby liquidating a huge portion of available units.
This, he claims, caused a panic amongst traders, which likely led to the massive drop we witnessed 24 hours ago. He states:
Concerns surrounding the sale of BTC from Plus Token did cause initial panic and the global sell-off also impacted market sentiment… The price falling below the 150-day moving average was a major setback, opening up lower supports at $8,000 and $7,800.
Enneking was also quick to state that this recent price slide places bitcoin along the lines of more traditional assets, thereby making its “safe haven” status relatively questionable. He explains:
The aspect of this drop, which is far more concerning than the drop itself, is the sudden, very high and direct correlation with fiat assets. This lowers the attraction of the crypto space as both an alternative to highly correlated fiat markets and damages the argument that crypto (and BTC specifically) is a ‘haven’ investment asset like gold.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
The projected upper bound is: 8,619.15.
The projected lower bound is: 7,017.26.
The projected closing price is: 7,818.21.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 25.2258. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 32.71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 27 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -159.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed down -158.620 at 7,835.770. Volume was 127% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 57% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 8,550.36 9,233.42 8,643.09
Volatility: 70 56 56
Volume: 346,511 253,487 127,900
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 9.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period low while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bullish divergence.