Home Crypto Bitcoin Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Is $6500 Incoming?

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Is $6500 Incoming?

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Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Is $6500 Incoming?

The Bitcoin [BTC] investment rhetoric this year began with the ‘safe haven’ dialect. The trade war between the US and China heightened during Q2. Consequently, Bitcoin and gold, both regained over 150% and  18%, respectively.

The downside post of September is also correlated with gold. However, the current macro structure will threaten a massive decoupling of these factors. On Tuesday, Gold rose by 1.05% after Trump’s made the announcement.

If the stock market and global trade continue to see adversities and Bitcoin [BTC] remains bearish, the store of value argument will be questioned.

Moreover, the halving speculation is still ongoing with the event due in May. Bitcoin investor, Alistar Milne, noted,

He is referring to the compensation in the selling pressure from miners, as half will reduce Bitcoin rewards in May 2020. Currently, about $13-15 million is needed to balance the number of daily rewards in Bitcoin [BTC].

The market usually discounts the value of the gains in the future. However, this time around, it seems to be waiting for the event to occur.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 8,250.45.

The projected upper bound is: 8,111.82.

The projected lower bound is: 6,461.49.

The projected closing price is: 7,286.65.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 18 white candles and 32 black candles for a net of 14 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 28.2666. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.88. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -28. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 120.780 at 7,300.450. Volume was 46% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 11% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
7,179.6807,399.9007,065.0907,300.450 43,599
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 7,397.44 8,296.97 9,393.54
Volatility: 46 65 75
Volume: 89,101 79,202 85,739

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 22.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.

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S. Jack Heffernan Ph.D. Economist at Knightsbridge holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Crypto, Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.