Home Crypto Bitcoin Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) investors still smiling at the end of 2019

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) investors still smiling at the end of 2019

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Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) investors still smiling at the end of 2019

It’s been a bumpy year for bitcoin hodlers, but despite the rough ride, over the last 12 months, the price of the cryptocurrency has risen by more than 95% since this time last year. 

On New Year’s Eve 2018, the price of bitcoin was sat at around $3,700, at the time of writing in 2019 however, the price has surged to around $7,300. That’s a 97.3% increase. Compared to other types of asset over the same time period, bitcoin has performed exceptionally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 27.37%, and the UK FTSE 100 rose by a modest 14%.  Not bad. But it’s been a test of nerves for investors this year. 

As we entered 2019, bitcoin’s price continued to trickle downwards, hitting a low of $3,400 on February 8, according to data from CoinMarketCap. But from that point, the price began to climb, with monthly gains leading all the way to July 12, where the price of bitcoin hit its 2019 high of $12,955. Since then the market has been dominated by dramatic price swings. 

The first came shortly after its July high. In just five days, the price slumped from nearly $13,000 back down to $9,481 by July 17. But by August 6, the price was way up again, sitting at $12,240. 

September, October, and November all saw similar patterns with billions wiped off the price of bitcoin before an almost miraculous recovery. While those recoveries never quite saw the price of bitcoin return to its July peak, if you’d bought bitcoin in January you’d still be sitting pretty. 

Making sense of it all

There has been a myriad of reasons why this year has had so many swings. A report by Chainalysis suggested a Chinese ponzi scam was behind the mid-December crash. Others suggested investors are just tired of all the swings and got out while the going was (moderately) good.Chinese ‘Ponzi scam’ may have tanked Bitcoin price, new report suggests

“Many companies and individuals that hold Bitcoin or other crypto still need to liquidate to fund their day to day expenses, and the fear of Bitcoin crashing even further is likely causing people to sell off further,” said Simon Yu, CEO of StormX, an e-commerce platform for micro-tasking, told Decrypt.

We’ve actually compiled a learn guide on why bitcoin’s price is so volatile. The TL:DR of it is, this is what happens in a small market (when compared to other assets like gold and equities) where there are a few big players or whales that cause significant shifts in price whenever they move their crypto. You can read the whole thing or watch our video.  

But despite the turbulent waters of 2019, exchange chiefs seem optimistic about bitcoin’s fortunes in 2020. Why major crypto exchange CEOs are bullish on bitcoin for 2020

Executives at top South Korean crypto exchanges Bithumb, Korbit, and Hanbitco believe that market conditions will be brighter in 2020 thanks to improved regulation and a shift in the appetites of institutional investors.

Japanese exchange executives seem to agree that 2020 will be a golden year, too. There’s also the long-awaited halvening of Bitcoin mining rewards to come in May as well. In the last two such events, bitcoin’s price trended upwards-albeit not always right away. Many are hoping this could lead to further gains for investors in the crypto asset. 

If you’d been lucky enough to get into bitcoin in 2010 however, 2019’s highs and lows mean diddly squat compared to what happens if you held bitcoin for a decade. 

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 7,891.01.

The projected lower bound is: 6,782.68.

The projected closing price is: 7,336.84.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 49.2596. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.82. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 119.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 143.830 at 7,365.330. Volume was 86% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 62% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
7,400.5007,551.5007,251.7007,365.330 11,268
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 7,252.76 7,552.06 9,284.22
Volatility: 26 47 73
Volume: 79,138 84,319 85,470

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 20.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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